According to the US Solar Market Insight Q2 2024 report, total solar panel production capacity in the US increased by more than 11 GW in the first quarter of 2024.
The Insight into the US solar market Q2 2024 According to the report, 11 GW of new solar module manufacturing capacity came online in the United States in the first three months of 2024 – the largest quarter of solar production growth in U.S. history.
The report, released by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, estimates that total solar panel production capacity in the US now exceeds 26 GW per year.
In addition to solar energy production, the United States is also rapidly ramping up solar installations. With 11.8 GW of new solar capacity installed so far in 2024, total capacity now stands at 200 GW in the United States. The utility-scale segment alone is responsible for almost 10 GW of the new added capacity.
The report shows that the United States added more than 40 GW of new solar capacity last year, and Wood Mackenzie now expects the country to be on track to reach the same goal by 2024.
“This quarter proves that new federal investments in clean energy are revitalizing American manufacturing and strengthening our nation’s energy economy,” said Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of SEIA. “Whether it’s a billion-dollar investment in a nearby solar project or a new factory with hundreds of local employees, the solar and storage industry is powering communities in every state in this country.”
The report points to Florida and Texas as leaders in new solar capacity in the first quarter. Florida installed 2.7 GW in the first quarter and Texas 2.6 GW. California, historically a leader in solar energy, fell into third place with 1.4 GW of new installations. However, it is notable that Texas installed almost 12 GW in 2023, while California had about 6.4 GW. New Mexico is another leading market with 686 MW installed in the first quarter, followed by Ohio with 546 MW. Hitting the bottom are North Dakota, Alabama and Alaska.
“The U.S. solar industry continues to show strength in terms of deployments,” said Michelle Davis, head of Global Solar at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report. “At the same time, the solar industry faces a number of challenges to its continued growth, including labor availability, limitations of high-voltage equipment and continued trade policy uncertainty.”
The residential solar segment has been hit hard by high interest rates and unsupportive government policies. California, where the highly controversial NEM 3.0 came into effect, had its worst quarter in two years. Overall, the residential sector installed 1.3 GWdc in the first quarter, reflecting a decline of 25% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter, but going forward, residential solar is expected to remain stable will stay.
Commercial solar showed a growth of 23% in 2023 and is expected to grow another 14% in 2024. This sector is somewhat buoyed by the fact that California projects submitted under NEM 2.0 are still in the interconnection queue.
Looking at community solar, January-March installations resulted in 279 MW (DC) of new capacity, with New York topping the charts at 17% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 stood, accounting for 46% of the national installed capacity. .
Once again, changes in state policy in California are punching holes in a previously growing market. As a consequence of the CPUC vote on AB 2316the report’s authors have revised their five-year outlook for California and now expect only 200 MW instead of 1.5 GW – a decline of 87%. Overall, the community solar market is expected to grow 4% by 2024, representing more than 1.3 GW of annual capacity.
Because there are many unanswered questions about tariffs on imported solar panels and other components, the report states that a tariff increase would not have a significant direct impact on the U.S. solar industry as the country currently imports less than 0.1% from China. .
Looking ahead, the report’s five-year outlook expects the U.S. industry to install approximately 40 GW per year over the next five years. Trade policy uncertainty, coupled with labor and high-voltage equipment shortages, will boost overall growth by single digits through 2029. However, the five-year projection is that US solar capacity will grow to 438 GW by 2029.
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